paulfchristiano comments on The Absolute Self-Selection Assumption - Less Wrong

16 Post author: paulfchristiano 11 April 2011 03:25PM

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Comment author: wnoise 11 April 2011 09:20:10PM 4 points [-]

So you're going with "randomly generated". Which is fine, but it needs to be spelled out.

there are infinitely many copies of any pattern which occurs with positive probability.

You need to be very careful pulling intuitions about randomness from the finite case and applying it to the infinite case. In particular, it is no longer true that just because something happened, it has a positive probability. Any given real number has probability zero of being picked from the uniform distribution on [0,1) yet one certainly will be picked. And we can pick an infinite number of times and never encounter a duplicate.

the least convenient possible world

I'm not attacking this assumption in order to attack your final conclusion, I'm just attacking this assumption.

Comment author: paulfchristiano 11 April 2011 09:27:31PM *  0 points [-]

Any given real number has probability zero of being picked from the uniform distribution on [0,1) yet one certainly will be picked

I believe there are probably only countably many distinguishable observer moments, in which case this can't happen by countable additivity.

But you are certainly correct, that a lot goes into this assumption. I should be more clear about this; in particular, I should probably add a bunch of "may"'s.