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CuSithBell comments on We are not living in a simulation - Less Wrong
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dfranke means, I think, that he considers being in a simulation possible, but not likely.
Statement A) "We are not living in a simulation": P(living in a simulation) < 50%
Statement B) "We cannot be in a simulation": P(living in a simulation) ~= 0%
dfranke believes A, but not B.
That may be dfranke's intent, but categorically stating something to be the case generally indicates a much higher confidence than 50%. ("If you roll a die, it will come up three or higher.")