As for how this bears on Bostrom's simulation argument: I'm not familiarized with it properly, but how much of its force does it lose by not being able to appeal to consciousness-based reference classes and the like? I can't see how that would make simulations impossible; nearest I can guess is that it harms his conclusion that we are probably in a simulation?

Right. All the probabilistic reasoning breaks down, and if your re-explanation patches things at all I don't understand how. Without reference to consciousness I don't know how to make sense of the "our" in "our experiences". Who is the observer who is sampling himself out of a pool of identical copies?

Anthropics is confusing enough to me that it's possible that I'm making an argument whose conclusion doesn't depend on its hypothesis, and that the argument I should actually be making is that this part of Bostrom's reasoning is nonsense regardless of whether you believe in qualia or not.