brazil84 comments on The Bias You Didn't Expect - Less Wrong

92 Post author: Psychohistorian 14 April 2011 04:20PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (90)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Alejandro1 09 October 2012 02:51:15PM 4 points [-]

Let me propose a charitable interpretation of what brazil84 is saying (he can correct me if I am wrong). Here is an example:

We are discussing who committed a crime. There are three and only three suspects: Peter, Paul and Mary. Mary has an excellent alibi, so she's basically out of the running. There is some evidence both for Peter's and for Paul's guilt. Let's say we agree that the probabilities of each being guilty are: Mary 2%, Peter 49%, Paul 49%.

Then a witness comes up who saw someone wearing a dress in the scene of the crime. Since men are a priori unlikely to wear dresses, this lowers the probability of Peter or Paul doing it.. Let's say however that for whatever reason, we agree that it slightly less unlikely a priori that Peter would wear a dress than that Paul would wear it. Mary's alibi is so good that the new evidence only raises very slightly her probability of being guilty. The posterior probabilities are: Mary: 6%, Peter: 48%, Paul 46%.

This seems like a situation which might be described with brazil84's quote

"so situations can arise where evidence comes out which contradicts a hypothesis but still makes that hypothesis more likely to be correct"

in the sense that Peter's guilt, even though in the absolute sense less likely (the evidence "contradicted" it) should now be our top hypothesis; it is "more likely to be correct" compared to the only plausible alternative.

I agree that brazil84's way of putting it was a bit confusing, if this is what he meant.

Comment author: brazil84 09 October 2012 11:05:42PM 0 points [-]

I think that's pretty close. If I am arguing that Paul committed the murder (and you are arguing that Peter committed the murder) it doesn't really help your argument to point out that there is evidence the murderer was wearing a dress since it undermines your own position just as much as it undermines the position you have taken.

Getting back to the original discussion, another poster pointed out that my "contested cases later" hypothesis is undermined by the fact is undermined by the observation that for some judges there is a zero percent approval rate for later cases. The problem with this argument is that it undermines the "hunger" hypothesis even more than the "contested cases later" hypothesis.