RichardKennaway comments on Say More, Justify Less - Less Wrong

19 Post author: paulfchristiano 14 April 2011 10:41PM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 April 2011 12:31:59PM *  1 point [-]

Aumann agreement requires knowing one's priors and posteriors. Actually knowing, i.e. being able to state the actual numbers. But no-one can do this.

Comment author: prase 15 April 2011 12:39:10PM 0 points [-]

Noone can do this exactly, but why isn't some approximation effective? To update in a Bayesian way we need to know our priors too, and not being able to state the numbers precisely isn't seen as a reason for not using Bayesian updating in a wide class of practical situations.

Comment author: paulfchristiano 15 April 2011 02:03:28PM 0 points [-]

I would guess the problem isn't approximation, its the common knowledge no one has. You can't approximate this, and if anyone suspects it may not be completely true (which they should, since it isn't) the result completely falls apart.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 April 2011 01:33:49PM 0 points [-]

I forgot the other requirement, and the more onerous one, for Aumann agreement: the two people's priors must already agree. This is absolutely unrealistic.

Strong Bayesians may say that there is a unique universal prior that every perfect Bayesian reasoner must have, but until that prior can be exhibited, Aumann agreement must remain a mirage. No-one has exhibited that prior.