paulfchristiano comments on Say More, Justify Less - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (25)
This is an interesting problem. I agree that Aumann-style updating in practice will lead to less correct beliefs systematically, but you don't seem to analyse why it is so. My hunch is that the reason is our inability to judge other people's rationality well, but I'd like to know what do you think about it. The explanation
doesn't tell much.
Perfectly updating on the basis of others' opinions is rare; I have never seen anyone who purports to do it correctly (I can't update correctly on the basis of almost anything). Common knowledge of this ability seems impossible to come by. Common knowledge that neither of you is trying to manipulate the other (or speaking for signaling reasons) is also completely non-existent: I have never been in an environment where more than 2 or 3 levels of non-manipulation were known.