paulfchristiano comments on Say More, Justify Less - Less Wrong
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Comments (25)
Noone can do this exactly, but why isn't some approximation effective? To update in a Bayesian way we need to know our priors too, and not being able to state the numbers precisely isn't seen as a reason for not using Bayesian updating in a wide class of practical situations.
I would guess the problem isn't approximation, its the common knowledge no one has. You can't approximate this, and if anyone suspects it may not be completely true (which they should, since it isn't) the result completely falls apart.