ChrisHallquist comments on Say More, Justify Less - Less Wrong
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Tell me more about how the bet would be set up, and I might be interested.
I mean, you might try to set up a rational business firm to dislodge the incumbents in some existing industry. But the failure of such an upstart wouldn't prove that rational firms are not ceteris paribus better, only that their advantages are not greater than the advantages of being an incumbent.