Manfred comments on Your Evolved Intuitions - Less Wrong
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Another problem with using a list of postdictions to support evolutionary psychology is that you have not shown that it cannot also predict the opposite - as it sometimes can if you choose to tell the story differently.
Premise: Men in tribal societies spend a lot of time hunting, and women more time gathering.
2. Human males should show a greater tendency toward isolation than in similar species in which males do not hunt much, because hunting for small and medium-sized game is a solitary endeavor.
5. All people should claim status from large successes, because of our background in tribal politics.
6. Women should have superior cognitive ability to use and construct more pieces of rudimentary technology and perform 3D mental rotation tasks required for weaving baskets and similar acts. Men should have superior cognitive ability with spatial location memory and perception because of its use in hunting.
This is the most trenchant criticism in my opinion. I disagree with those who say that postdictions are worthless. But they've got to be honest postdictions. They have to be real probabilistic consequences of the logic of the theory.
Good. The reason is explained by Yudkowsky:
and:
Probability theory has no separate category for 'prediction' and 'postdiction'.
But yes, you need to be making predictions and postdictions that actually follow from the math of your theory. Though, semitechnical theories can still build up a high enough score to beat out rival theories.
In response, I just want to repeat everything Eliezer said here and here, and point you to this article.