Tyrrell_McAllister comments on Your Evolved Intuitions - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (104)
This is the most trenchant criticism in my opinion. I disagree with those who say that postdictions are worthless. But they've got to be honest postdictions. They have to be real probabilistic consequences of the logic of the theory.
Good. The reason is explained by Yudkowsky:
and:
Probability theory has no separate category for 'prediction' and 'postdiction'.
But yes, you need to be making predictions and postdictions that actually follow from the math of your theory. Though, semitechnical theories can still build up a high enough score to beat out rival theories.