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SilasBarta comments on Bayesians vs. Barbarians - Less Wrong
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Very plausible. Also, fear and embarrassment could be factors. Several of my heavier friends have told me that they don't like to go to the gym because they feel self-conscious surrounded by fitter people. This is probably also true of, for example, jogging in public; they are afraid of people watching them and judging them ("Look at that fat guy/girl trying to run!").
Yes, this was the basis for a Jerry Seinfeld comedy routine: "We need to have a pre-gym, a gym-before-the-gym. A place where you can get yourself fit enough to be comfortable going to the regular gym." (And this actually isn't far from the reason for the success of the franchise Curves.)
I was strongly voted up a while back for making the above point and then suggesting we have the analog website for LessWrong -- a place where people can learn and discuss this stuff without being intimindated by those who know more.
If only the users of Curves graduated to regular gyms more frequently...