PhilGoetz comments on Bayesians vs. Barbarians - Less Wrong

51 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 April 2009 11:45PM

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Comment author: orthonormal 15 April 2009 11:13:40PM 14 points [-]

Eliezer's point is that, given a certain decision theory (or, failing that, a certain set of incentives to precommitment), rational soldiers could in fact carry out even suicide missions if the tactical incentives were strong enough for them to precommit to a certain chance of drawing such a mission.

This has actually come up: in World War II (citation in Pinker's "How the Mind Works"), bomber pilots making runs on Japan had a 1 in 4 chance of survival. Someone realized that the missions could be carried out with half the planes if those planes carried bombs in place of their fuel for the return trip; the pilots could draw straws, and half would survive while the other half went on a suicide mission. Despite the fact that precommitting to this policy would have doubled their chances of survival, the actual pilots were unable to adopt this policy (among other things, because they were suspicious that those so chosen would renege rather than carry out the mission).

I think Eliezer believes that a team of soldiers trained by Jeffreysai would be able to precommit in this fashion and carry the mission through if selected. I think that, even if humans can't meet such a high standard by training and will alone, that there could exist some form of preparation or institution that could make it a workable strategy.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 16 April 2009 07:29:24PM 1 point [-]

How did Japan convince pilots to be kamikazes?

Comment author: orthonormal 17 April 2009 04:55:45PM 4 points [-]

Chiefly by a code of death-before-dishonor (and death-after-dishonor) which makes sense for a warring country to precommit to. Though it doesn't seem there was much conscious reasoning that went into the code's establishment, just an evolutionary optimization on codes of honor among rival daimyo, which resulted in the entire country having the values of the victorious shoguns instilled.

Comment author: jimmy 16 April 2009 10:36:34PM 3 points [-]

I'm no history expert, but I remember hearing something about cutting off a finger and promising to kill anyone that shows up missing that finger.