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shokwave comments on Convincing Arguments Aren’t Necessarily Correct – They’re Merely Convincing - Less Wrong
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Convincing is a proxy for correct, but not a good one (anymore). And politics is a great example of how optimisation by proxy can produce almost entirely false positives.
In case you were wondering and didn't follow MinibearRex's link the heuristic we use for determining convincingness is how representative of reality the scenario given is; in your case, a lot of the premises seem to be variants on "business as usual" which ought to strike you as particularly representative of reality.