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Tetronian comments on Convincing Arguments Aren’t Necessarily Correct – They’re Merely Convincing - Less Wrong
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I think "what feels plausible is not probable" is slightly better, since it shows the map-territory distinction--"plausible" and "probable" both sound like words that describe the territory.
Sure; in practice these soundbites are a reaction to someone saying "plausible" (and now "convincing") and they usually respond with some form of "what?". Which lets me do the fifteen-second explanation of the representativeness heuristic: "I'm gonna flip a coin a bunch of times. Which is more plausible, heads heads tails heads tails tails heads, or tails tails tails tails tails? One option makes you four times as much money as the other." If they show interest then I do my best to limit myself to a few minutes.