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David_Gerard comments on Convincing Arguments Aren’t Necessarily Correct – They’re Merely Convincing - Less Wrong
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"Plausible is the opposite of probable" is the soundbite I use.
This is particularly difficult as I have highly tuned my brain to plausibility, like more than most people. Hence the usefulness of a handy soundbite somewhat hooked into the plausibility detector.
I want trip-wires and landmines in my brain so that whenever I semi-consciously judge something as plausible, reasonable, 'a soldier on my side', 'a soldier on the enemy's side', etc alarms and explosions go off and stop me from making such judgments. The closest I can find to such tools is soundbites like these that are trained up as automatic responses to such judgments.
Reversed stupidity is not intelligence.