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JGWeissman comments on Convincing Arguments Aren’t Necessarily Correct – They’re Merely Convincing - Less Wrong
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"Plausible is the opposite of probable" is the soundbite I use.
This is particularly difficult as I have highly tuned my brain to plausibility, like more than most people. Hence the usefulness of a handy soundbite somewhat hooked into the plausibility detector.
Reversed stupidity is not intelligence.