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Larifari comments on Nonmagical Powers - Less Wrong
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I am participating in a just-for-fun soccer prediction game with friends, where one gets awarded points for correctly predicted results or tendencies. In the beginning, I relied on gut feeling and information from soccer news sites like everyone else, and performed pretty badly. After a while, I implemented a simple script that takes quotes from betfair.com, a prediction market for sports, and calculates the prediction with highest expected points. Since then, I steadily climb the ladder.
I quite often go to find stock market proxies that might measure the significance of certain events. It helps to put bounds on things since the media generally places everything at Defcon 1 to attract attention. This rarely settles most or all questions you might have, and a lot of additional extrapolations are necessary, but can be of use.
Here is for instance, a Nuclear ETF. It might seemingly help to rule out the hypothesis of a substantial shift away from Nuclear to note that the value is in the range of just 6 months ago.