[SEQ RERUN] Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary

jake987722

[SEQ RERUN] Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary — LessWrong

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Y'see, this sort of thing is why I distrust the betting model for extreme probabilities like this.

I mean, I would take that bet as well, but I'm pretty sure that my estimate under normal circumstances is closer to jimrandomh's... it's just that the offer itself is so outrageous that the circumstances stop being normal. I think my reasoning would be more along the lines of "what the hell, I'm willing to throw away ten cents just to get to tell this story," or possibly even "I no longer have any idea what's going on, but losing ten cents is no big deal and I'm curious to see what happens next."

Put another way: I very much doubt that my willingness to take that bet is the result of an EV calculation using my real prior probability of a randomly selected pen falling to the ground; therefore, I am disinclined to treat that willingness as significant evidence of that prior.

NoSignalNoNoise14y00

I distrust the betting model for extreme probabilities like this.

Can any of us really comprehend that much money? Frankly, I bet even Warren Buffet would have trouble; he has said after he gives away 99% of his wealth, he and his family will have all the money they will ever need. Does 100 times as much money as you'll ever need really feel different from 10x or 1000x?

The betting heuristic is useful because our intuitive sense for money has a much larger dynamic range than our intuitive sense of probability - it's easier to conceptualize "a subwa... (read more)

1benelliott15y

Would you take the offer if it was only $10? I wouldn't (I get to tell the story either way), which suggests my decision really does depend upon my prior. Another interefering factor is the fact that my utility function is nowhere near monotonic in dollars, especially for large amount. I'd take a certainty of $1 million over a 5% chance of $1 billion, which suggests that $50 billion is worth a lot less than a trillion times as much as 5 cents to me, so my prior must be some way below 99.9999999999% Bear in mind overconfidence bias, its very easy to get trigger happy with 9s, and forget that even 99.9% is very impressive in a world with as many unknowns and interfering factors as ours.

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