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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Sarah Connor and Existential Risk - Less Wrong
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Huh? Downvoted for sloppy reasoning. This most likely won't happen on the timescale where "life as we know it" continues to exist.
The Chicxulub asteroid impact did wipe out almost all non-ocean life. That asteroid was 8-12 km. It is estimated that an impact of that size happens every few hundred million years. So this claim seems inaccurate. On the other hand, the WISE survey results strongly suggests that no severe asteroid impacts are likely in the next few hundred years.
Only if you expect life as we know it to last in the order of a few hundred million years. That probability of that happening is too low for me to even put a number to it.
Would you mind posting your reasoning, instead of just posting your conclusions and an insult?
I should clarify that I was intending to set some sort of boundary condition on the possible futures of life on earth, rather than predicting a specific end to it: If life comes to no other end, at the very least, eventually we'll get asteroided if we stay here. This by itself does not justify killing people in a fight for asteroid-prevention; so what would justify killing people?
Timescale of life as we know it continuing to exist: Short
Timescale of killer asteroids hitting earth: Long
Are we running into definitional issues of what we mean by "life as we know it?" That term has some degree of ambiguity that may be creating the problem.
Quite possibly. Although one of the features of 'life as we know it' that will not survive for hundreds of millions of years is living exclusively on earth. So the disagreement would remain independently of definition.