JoshuaZ comments on Sarah Connor and Existential Risk - Less Wrong

-9 [deleted] 01 May 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 May 2011 11:55:52PM 2 points [-]

This most likely won't happen on the timescale where "life as we know it" continues to exist.

The Chicxulub asteroid impact did wipe out almost all non-ocean life. That asteroid was 8-12 km. It is estimated that an impact of that size happens every few hundred million years. So this claim seems inaccurate. On the other hand, the WISE survey results strongly suggests that no severe asteroid impacts are likely in the next few hundred years.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 May 2011 12:18:18AM 0 points [-]

It is estimated that an impact of that size happens every few hundred million years. So this claim seems inaccurate.

Only if you expect life as we know it to last in the order of a few hundred million years. That probability of that happening is too low for me to even put a number to it.