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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on [SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already - Less Wrong
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Cryonics should just work if everything we currently already believe about the brain is true and there are no surprises. It is not a small probability. It is the default mainline probability.
Cryonics being possible given advanced technology is the default mainline probability. But the probability of being revived given that you prepare to be cryo-preserved is not.
"My head remains in stasis in a facility that remains functional until such time as an agent in the future is willing and able to revive me" is not something that just happens. It could even be said to be a long shot. But the only shot available.
That's exactly what I meant. A lot of practical things can go wrong even if our beliefs about the brain are entirely correct. Rationality, Cryonics and Pascal's Wager gives a probability of 0.228 which is, indeed, not that improbable, but it is still less than 50%.
I conclude, then, that the supposedly useless heuristic described above
is useless only if the probability of success is very small