[link] Bruce Schneier on Cognitive Biases in Risk Analysis

8 Post author: alexflint 03 May 2011 06:37PM

A very clear-minded introduction to map-vs-territory ideas in the context of risk analysis. Nothing particularly new here, though the specific examples he gives may be of interest to LW readers.

http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_schneier.html

Comments (1)

Comment author: XFrequentist 04 May 2011 06:14:17PM *  0 points [-]

Thanks, interesting!

I've been thinking about writing an article on risk assessment as a worthwhile field of study or source of tools for LWers. The upshot is that it offers a pretty good rationality toolbox and there are lots of jobs, but it's suboptimal in some important ways.

I took a course on health risk assessment and it came pretty close to being Rationality 101 - covered the gamut from probability theory to expected utility to cognitive biases.

ETA: Googling something else returned this, which I hadn't read but is presents an excellent example of the kind of thing I mean by "suboptimal".