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[Reference request] Article by scientist giving lower and upper bounds on the probability of superintelligence
A few months back somebody posted an article by a scientist giving lower and upper bounds on the probability of superintelligence. He broke up the calculation as a Fermi calculation with three parts (EDIT: See LocustBeanGum's answer). Does anybody remember this article and if so can you provide a link?
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Comments (2)
The original article; the LW link post.
Perhaps you mean this, but the probabilities involved in the argument are different. (human level AI will be built in 100 years; the AI will be able to undergo a recursive self-improvement in intelligence; this intelligence explosion will unpredictably transform our world)
Thanks, this is what I was looking for.