Perhaps I wasn't clear. I don't think that macroeconomic theorizing is useful even if it predicts nothing. Obviously that's useless. I think that macroeconomic theorizing is useful even if they don't generally outperform market predictions of market forcasted variables because it gives you different kinds of information about the economy.
For example, imagine a world where relevant traders have very good models for predicting the value of the S&P500. However, these models are proprietary, detailed and heavily specialized for predicting the S&P500. Academic models are open, relatively simple and based on 'first principles'.
In this scenario, how useful are these two types models? Depends on what kind of question you're asking:
Perhaps you could formulate prediction markets to answer the second kind of question well, but I sure don't know how and in any case is not currently something people do.
There are also plenty of non-trivial macroeconomic predictions that you cannot make money off of. For example, 'employment will be 1 point higher in 1 year' is non-trivial, but it could be information already perfectly incorporated into the markets. 'printing money now increases employment and inflation for 1 year out' is also nontrivial but may also be fully accounted for. If you don't have access to markets that predict precisely this information, such forecasts can easily be useful.
Also, all relevant prediction markets do not exist. Examples: there are no very liquid unemployment prediction markets, there are no very liquid real GDP prediction markets etc. What is individually useful to trade is not necessarily the same thing as what is socially valuable to know.
What kinds of alternative monetary institutions would be better than current ones? Trader models useless. Academic models useful.
It may well be that the existing trader models are useless for answering this question, but any novel model that is capable of answering them should ipso facto be able to provide useful investment information. There are endless public controversies over the expected effects of the current monetary policy, which have direct bearing on all sorts of markets, and if you can forecast their effects with more accuracy than any existi...
I was immensely glad to find this community, because while I knew intellectually that I was not the only person who felt that rationality was important, death was bad, and technology was our savior, I had never met anyone else who did. I thus determined my career without much input from anything except my own interests; which is not so bad, of course, but I have realized that I might benefit from advice from like-minded people.
Specifically, I would like to know what LessWrong thinks I should do in order to get into "immortality research." Edit: that means "what field should I go into if I want humanity to have extended lifespans as soon as possible?"
I feel immortality, or at least life-extension, is one of - if not the - most important thing(s) humanity can accomplish right now. I don't think I am suited to AI work, however. Another obvious option is an MD, but that's not in my temperament either. My major right now is biochemistry, in preparation for a doctorate in either biochemistry itself, or pharmacology.
I think there's a good chance that advances in this area could contribute to life extension; aging is a biochemical process, right? And certainly drugs will be involved in life extension. But is this the best place to apply my efforts? I have considered that biogerontology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerontology) might be better, as it is about aging specifically; but I don't know much about the field - only that Wikipedia says it is new and very few universities offer degrees in it. My final idea is nanotechnology of some kind; I believe nanomachines may be able to repair our bodies. I'm not sure what type of nanotechnology I'd be looking at for this, or if degrees in it are offered.
Any ideas, suggestions, or comments in general are welcome. I favor the biochemical approach as of now, but only through temperament. As far as I know, AI, biochemical/pharmacological methods, and nanotechnology are all about equally close to giving us immortality. If someone feels one option is better than the others, or has recommended reading on the subject, please share!
Thanks in advance, my new rational friends.