Replying by paragraph:
3) sure; my point was that (1) does not imply (2).
1) I'm not clear on how you're disagreeing with me, so this is mostly going to be a reworking of my previous answer. Let me know if you can clarify your disagreement.
Academic and trader models can be better at answering different questions. Neither one need always dominate the other. Academic models might be better at answering questions which rarely come up, for example 'what happens when we change monetary institutions?', so not offer useful investment advice except in those rare occasions but still be useful for deciding what options policy makers should consider.
Academic models can also provide much more understandable and accessible models of the economy (see 2). Non-traders may find these much more useful than trader models (which they may not have access to or be able to understand).
2) No. Remember I stated that this information was already taken into account by the market. NGDP, employment etc. are not random walks (Edit: I mean they are not martingales); their expected future value is not independent of past values. Unemployment is highly non random see here. Some macroeconomic variables are random walks, for example stock market indexes, but most of them are not.
I'm not sure I understand you either. Are you actually saying that if I had an oracle capable of telling me what, say, the rate of unemployment or NGDP growth will be in a year, it would not be possible to make investments with above-market returns using this information?
Moreover, I am at a loss trying to imagine a theory that would enable us to predict with reliable accuracy what would happen if we changed the monetary institutions in a given way, and which wouldn't also enable us to get reliably accurate information on the uncertain and controversial qu...
I was immensely glad to find this community, because while I knew intellectually that I was not the only person who felt that rationality was important, death was bad, and technology was our savior, I had never met anyone else who did. I thus determined my career without much input from anything except my own interests; which is not so bad, of course, but I have realized that I might benefit from advice from like-minded people.
Specifically, I would like to know what LessWrong thinks I should do in order to get into "immortality research." Edit: that means "what field should I go into if I want humanity to have extended lifespans as soon as possible?"
I feel immortality, or at least life-extension, is one of - if not the - most important thing(s) humanity can accomplish right now. I don't think I am suited to AI work, however. Another obvious option is an MD, but that's not in my temperament either. My major right now is biochemistry, in preparation for a doctorate in either biochemistry itself, or pharmacology.
I think there's a good chance that advances in this area could contribute to life extension; aging is a biochemical process, right? And certainly drugs will be involved in life extension. But is this the best place to apply my efforts? I have considered that biogerontology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerontology) might be better, as it is about aging specifically; but I don't know much about the field - only that Wikipedia says it is new and very few universities offer degrees in it. My final idea is nanotechnology of some kind; I believe nanomachines may be able to repair our bodies. I'm not sure what type of nanotechnology I'd be looking at for this, or if degrees in it are offered.
Any ideas, suggestions, or comments in general are welcome. I favor the biochemical approach as of now, but only through temperament. As far as I know, AI, biochemical/pharmacological methods, and nanotechnology are all about equally close to giving us immortality. If someone feels one option is better than the others, or has recommended reading on the subject, please share!
Thanks in advance, my new rational friends.