For this to work out, feelings of this sort had to be between 20 and 200 times more likely if the church is true than if it isn't. Given human psychology, I think this is implausibly high. Like I said, I do think what you experienced is evidence, but I wouldn't put the odds much higher than 5:1.
I agree with this assessment on the basis of internal LDS Theology. That is the Spirit testifies of the truth to all men everywhere and testifies of whatever portion of the truth they have. Thus it can be assumed that some such Spiritual experiences should be had in pretty much any religion and among those that mingle scripture with philosophy to get gain.
This is why it is important to ask for oneself and receive a personal confirmation for specific questions. However, even this doesn't give high levels of certainty, as Alma points out in Alma 32. It does give enough to act upon what has been given so far which can then be used to get much higher degrees of confidence. Furthermore, it shouldn't be a one time thing but one should be continually receiving such experiences as we are given line upon line, precept on precept.
Assuming people are acting rationally after receiving such an experience, even praying specifically only appears to provide odds of something like 7:1. Of course, having occurred once they may have changed their assessment of its likelihood in other religions, especially since so many (theist and atheist alike) place such high probability on the LDS being wrong.
Other types of experiences are also possible and do happen (angels and so forth) but are rarer for reasons described in Alma 32 and elsewhere.
Adam/God
I know where this idea is coming from but it contradicts such scriptures as Christ saying He only did what He saw His Father do and the entire idea of resurrection and immortality as given in scripture. Even Christ had to grow in grace and truth and was not given the fullness at once, so human prophets when not speaking directly from prophecy are completely fallible. Adam is certainly a god but is not God the Father.
Book of Abraham papyri
Given that the Bible was similarly translated and the pattern of how that happened is given in the D&C it is very safe to assume that a literal translation of the text as it appears on the fragments of papyri used was not intended. Some of it does appear to match, but only slightly (the Popol Vuh has things closer to temple ceremony and knowledge from the book of Abraham then the literal translation of the papyri).
Hello fellow Less Wrongians!
Given your comments on my organizing communities series, I get the feeling that many of you are wondering why:
I'm happy to hold discussions about any of these questions or related ones. However, I haven't responded to many comments on the main series of posts because:
I wanted to created this thread as a center for questions you might have about my faith. This is not an attempt to preach -- I would be perfectly happy not having a discussion purely about religion at all. But since there seem to be many comments, well, fire away.
Some basic facts: I am a student at Stanford. I am 22. I converted to Mormonism when I was 19. I used to be atheist/agnostic. I am very much a believer, not just in it for the social perks.
Well, as it is written, AMA (= Ask Me Anything)
(Thanks Kevin for the suggestion.)
Edit: Wow, there are a lot of comments. This has been a helpful chance to clarify my thinking. I hope you have learned something useful -- perhaps using the question is 'Is there anything surprising here that he said?'.
Edit 2: Here are some answers to repeated questions. Again, this really helped me distill and clarify myself and I've enjoyed the discussion.
Why do you believe? It's a combination of
I would estimate that before this all happened, my odds ratio was about 2000:1, and now it's about 1:10. I would ballpark the odds ratios of each of the above 3 events as ~12.5:1, ~25:1, and ~62.5:1. (I was considering likelihood but didn't think in that precise of terms at the time, so any concretization is open to charges of ex post facto. And these are still ballparks.)
There are lots of arguments against Mormonism on factual and historical grounds; there are also counterarguments which I feel pretty much balance them out. (The feeling of balancing each other out was contemporaneous.)
What things could make you consider leaving the faith?
Why do you think your conversion story is disappointing to many of us?
Several possible reasons:
[1] Specifically: