paulfchristiano comments on Rationalists don't care about the future - Less Wrong
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Could someone please explain any possible justification for exponential discounting in this situation? I asked earlier, but got voted below the threshold. If this is a sign of disagreement, then I would like to understand why there is disagreement.
Robin Hanson's argument for exponential discounting derives from an exponential interest rate. Our current understanding of physics implies there won't be an exponential interest rate forever (in fact this is the point of the present article). So Robin Hanson's argument doesn't apply at all to the situation in this article, and I strongly suspect Robin Hanson himself would agree that exponential discounting in this situation is ridiculous.
The other reason I see to discount exponentially is exponentially decreasing confidence in our predictions about the future. While this is a good approximation in some cases, its not built into your utility function and arguments like the one in this article don't make any sense if this is the only basis for exponential discounting.
I have not seen any other arguments in this thread.
Not sure why your earlier comment got voted down. I voted it up to -1.
I think exponential discounting has gotten ingrained in our thinking mostly for historical reasons. Quoting from the book Time and Decision: economic and psychological perspectives on intertemporal choice ("DU model" here being the 1937 model from Paul Samuelson that first suggested exponential discounting):
I notice that axiomatizations in economics/theory of rationality seem to posses much more persuasive power than they should. (See also vNM's axiom of independence.) People seem to be really impressed that something is backed up by axioms and forget to check whether those axioms actually make sense for the situation.
To quote from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamically_inconsistent
At best, this is an argument not to use non-exponential, translation invariant discounting.
You can discount in a way that depends on time (for example, Robin Hanson would probably recommend discounting by current interest rate, which changes over time; the UDASSA recommends discounting in a way that depends on absolute time) or you can not discount at all. I know of plausible justifications for these approaches to discounting. I know of no such justification for exponential discounting. The wikipedia article does not provide one.
It is an argument not to use non-exponential, discounting.
Exponential discounting depends on time. It is exponential temporal discounting being discussed. So: values being scaled by ke^-ct - where the t is for "time".
The prevailing interest rate is normally not much of a factor - since money is only instrumentally valuable.
That is the trivial kind of exponential discounting, where the exponent is zero.
The bit I quoted was a justification. Exponential discounting yields time-consistent preferences. Only exponential discounting does that.