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Gedusa comments on [LINK] Two articles on Bitcoin - Less Wrong
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Weirdly, though I think that bitcoins will succeed (and accordingly have some) I don't think Calacanis' article is well-founded. To focus just on the points I feel I can judge with some merit:
I don't think this is true. Shutting down of all legitimate currency exchanges would tend to increase the barrier to investment by legitimate investors and be likely to decrease interest in Bitcoins. Anecdote: I would get less interested in bitcoins if this happened. Also, a focused government campaign against it might succeed in branding it as evil in public eyes, again reducing interest. I do recognize that these factors wouldn't destroy bitcoin, but they would reduce the chances of it "changing the world".
Again, I'm not so sure of this. Can anyone give me any legitimate reasons to anticipate this? So far I've just people on the bitcoin forums saying that the dollar/euro will collapse and bitcoin will attain worldwide dominance.
Basically, I predict they'll find a decent niche, won't replace any currency system in any major country and won't increase in value to insane levels.
Lots of people (fans of bitcoin or not) take that as a given. And if you do assume "fiat money is doomed, doomed!" then why wouldn't something like bitcoin become the world's reserve currency?
The euro has its problems, but if the dollar ever becomes worthless then the only useful currencies will be ammunition, canned food, and sex.
Because governments would prefer other currencies. They would even prefer a gold or silver restandardization to Bitcoin, since bitcoins are harder to track than movements of physical metals. As far as spontaneous restandardization, (i.e. without government approval), metals have the advantage of an industrial price.
Okay, I'm willing to grant that if the dollar/fiat money in general is doomed then something along the lines of bitcoin would probably take over. But I don't assume this. I guess it is rational to put lots of money into bitcoin if you do take this premise though.
I agree that the dollar becoming effectively worthless would be pretty bad to put it mildly!
Even if the USD goes down really badly in value, there's still three hundred million people, a large proportion of whom are workers, to give it some utility as currency.
It struck me also as a rather shallow and hand-wavy article, and I was wondering what people who liked Bitcoin would think of it. (I am quite used to the feeling of wishing a particular advocate for a view of mine wasn't on my side.) I am not a fan of Calacanis; I respect his skills, I don't like his work or the quality of his ideas.