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XiXiDu comments on Pascal's Mugging - Penalizing the prior probability? - Less Wrong
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Comments (29)
Define 'huge utility'? Rain recently offered everyone on Less Wrong a deal, "For every non-duplicate comment replying to this one praising me for my right action, I will donate $10 to SIAI [...]." This isn't different from the deal I proposed, only insofar as it is much more likely that the dealer will deliver. But the uncertainty in my example is being outweighed by the possibility of a huge payoff.
Where do you draw the line, what are the upper and lower bounds? That is the essential question.
I don't mean to imply a threshold between huge utilities and other kinds - just that the larger the utilities promised you by strangers requesting up-front errands, the more evidence you shoud look for - to ensure that you are not being taken for a ride.
The whole "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" bit.