XiXiDu comments on Pascal's Mugging - Penalizing the prior probability? - Less Wrong
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Comments (29)
What is the crucial difference between being 1 distinct person, of N people making N distinct decisions, and being 1 of N distinct people? In other words, why would the ability to make a decision, that is inaccessible to other decision makers, penalize the prior probability of its realization more than any other feature of distinct world-state?
I will probably have to grasp anthropic reasoning first. I am just a bit confused that if only 1 of N people faces a certain choice it becomes 1/N times more unlikely to be factual.
That only 1 of N people face the choice doesn't make it less likely that the choice exists, it makes less likely the conjunction of the choice existing, and that you are the one that makes the choice.