JGWeissman comments on Pascal's Mugging - Penalizing the prior probability? - Less Wrong

8 Post author: XiXiDu 17 May 2011 02:44PM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 18 May 2011 03:42:04PM 0 points [-]

I am just a bit confused that if only 1 of N people faces a certain choice it becomes 1/N times more unlikely to be factual.

That only 1 of N people face the choice doesn't make it less likely that the choice exists, it makes less likely the conjunction of the choice existing, and that you are the one that makes the choice.