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Risto_Saarelma comments on Living Forever is Hard, or, The Gompertz Curve - Less Wrong
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Why does Vaniver care?
So, I recently turned 23. I am on schedule to have my anti-aging regimen fully in place by 25, and beginning tonight am again attempting the uberman sleep schedule (which, if it works, will increase my subjective experience of time by 40-50%).
My logic for the 25 date was to give myself enough time to fully research the issue, and if I have to pick a time to freeze myself at, 25 seems a heck of a lot better than 45 or 65! But looking at models like this is interesting because you can see the difference between various kinds of freezes. If living healthily just drops the .003, then it's not where big gains are. If I managed to drop it by a factor of 10, then I'd get an extra 23 years out of doing so. But I'm still projected to die at 100, after a 10x reduction in risk! That's the same gain as increasing my time experience by 40% / decreasing my risk growth rate by 30%.
With changing that number, I also don't see much benefit to doing it early. Reducing my risk by 10x is reducing my risk by 10x, but if my chance of dying by the time I hit 45 is really low anyway, and I still get 22.2 extra years if I start living healthily at 45 (21 years if you take into account the chance of not hitting 45), then is it really worth it to live healthily for 20 years to get 2 more years at the end of my life?
So, really, all of the hope of life extension hinges on the slowdown (I can make the 10 into a 20), the freeze (I can make the 10 infinity, and only have to deal with accidents), or the reverse (I can lower my t, essentially giving everyone access to the freeze). It seems likely to me that some components of living healthily (the calorie restriction stuff, for example) does actually work by slowdown, but then you need to ask if the effects are cumulative (since I've been growing my mitochondria for 40 years at 65, they can knock cancer out of the park, compared to if I had only been growing them 20 years) or fixed (there's no reason to go on an anti-cancer diet until you get cancer).
One of the possible uses for deep sleep is having a phase where the body heals itself more effectively. Some people have reported that the cuts they get heal noticeably slower than usual when they are on uberman. What if extreme polyphasic sleep does inhibit effective healing, and this also affects the anti-cancer component in the model for the Gompertz curve?
That's a tough call, and depends on the numbers and how I value hours. Do I prefer daytime hours to nighttime hours? The reverse? Do I discount based on objective time, or subjective time? (i.e. should I seem less patient to others while on Uberman, because to me waiting 3 days for something represents being aware of waiting for 40% longer?) Do I try to weight the future more heavily, since the further future will probably be more awesome than the nearer future?
If I assume the simple goal of "maximize total number of hours awake," then I just need to know how uberman affects my risk growth rate. If it has no physiological effect except aging me at my subjective time (i.e. 16 years pass on the calendar, but I've been awake as much as most people are in 22 years, and my body is 22 years older rather than 16) then it doesn't matter whether I'm on it or not. If it ages me more slowly than that (my body ages 20 years in those 16, but I'm awake for 22) then I'm better off on it. If it ages me more quickly than that (my body ages 30 years in those 16), then I'm better off not doing it.
What seems likely as a middle road, though, is staying on uberman until my body hits 45 years old and cancer starts becoming an issue, and then switching to normal sleep, presuming that uberman does inhibit my cancer response but doesn't increase my chance of death due to accident.
I am regretting not getting a blood test done, though, as it would be nice to compare white blood cell counts before and after.
Incorrect, because you've only gotten the benefit of 16 years of medical advancement, rather than 22 years of medical advancement. This alone may overwhelm all other differences.
And then there are other time-dependent things, like compounding interest/returns.