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army1987 comments on Living Forever is Hard, or, The Gompertz Curve - Less Wrong
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Why does Vaniver care?
So, I recently turned 23. I am on schedule to have my anti-aging regimen fully in place by 25, and beginning tonight am again attempting the uberman sleep schedule (which, if it works, will increase my subjective experience of time by 40-50%).
My logic for the 25 date was to give myself enough time to fully research the issue, and if I have to pick a time to freeze myself at, 25 seems a heck of a lot better than 45 or 65! But looking at models like this is interesting because you can see the difference between various kinds of freezes. If living healthily just drops the .003, then it's not where big gains are. If I managed to drop it by a factor of 10, then I'd get an extra 23 years out of doing so. But I'm still projected to die at 100, after a 10x reduction in risk! That's the same gain as increasing my time experience by 40% / decreasing my risk growth rate by 30%.
With changing that number, I also don't see much benefit to doing it early. Reducing my risk by 10x is reducing my risk by 10x, but if my chance of dying by the time I hit 45 is really low anyway, and I still get 22.2 extra years if I start living healthily at 45 (21 years if you take into account the chance of not hitting 45), then is it really worth it to live healthily for 20 years to get 2 more years at the end of my life?
So, really, all of the hope of life extension hinges on the slowdown (I can make the 10 into a 20), the freeze (I can make the 10 infinity, and only have to deal with accidents), or the reverse (I can lower my t, essentially giving everyone access to the freeze). It seems likely to me that some components of living healthily (the calorie restriction stuff, for example) does actually work by slowdown, but then you need to ask if the effects are cumulative (since I've been growing my mitochondria for 40 years at 65, they can knock cancer out of the park, compared to if I had only been growing them 20 years) or fixed (there's no reason to go on an anti-cancer diet until you get cancer).
So, two years later... How did it go? Are you still doing that?
Both that and a previous attempt at Uberman failed. I never got to the point where I felt more rested after a nap than I did before a nap (though I did seem more rested outside in the sunlight- I'm not sure if that actually reduced my level of fatigue, or just suppressed my awareness of it. I could look for a daily cycle in my psychomotor vigilance task data to check, but I never analyzed it). If I succeed in hacking the process of falling asleep (I have sleep onset insomnia and am getting tired of it), I'll attempt it again, but I see no point in reattempting Uberman without doing that.
I'm doing much better with my anti-aging regimen, but I don't think I'd call it "fully in place." I've been on intermittent fasting for over a year, which is comparable to caloric restriction. I've got a project in the works to significantly improve the nutritional content of my diet which will happen over this summer (basically, Soylent, except I don't quite trust his methodology / ingredient choices and so am planning on doing it myself. He's missed at least two essential nutrients that made it onto my list- iron and sulfur- and I don't think his judgment on non-essential nutrients is very good either).
I do regular strength exercises, though the regularity could stand to improve, and I'm beginning routine swimming exercise. About that time, I was starting the cat stretch which I stopped doing after a few months, because of a combination of low reward and not having a good spot for it in my morning ritual. I'm not sure what priority I should place on doing that exercise (which is primarily about maintaining your current level of control and flexibility) compared to learning skills and doing exercises that increase my level of control and flexibility.
He says he's added sulfur: http://robrhinehart.com/?p=570
Right, that was how I noticed he had missed it, as with the iron deficiency that he discussed in his first post. When I made my list of nutrients, I checked to make sure everything on his list was on my list, but didn't think to do the reverse.