srn347 comments on Example decision theory problem: "Agent simulates predictor" - Less Wrong
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UDT may two-box in the above scenario if it simulates the predictor once, but what if the UDT agent simulates the predictor twice, simulates itself using the above reasoning and two-boxing in simulation 1, and simulates itself one-boxing for whatever reason in simulation 2? The UDT agent that one-boxes "for whatever reason" does better, and thus the real UDT agent will realize this upon running these 2 simulations and one-box, which the predictor will reason that it would.