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Will_Newsome comments on Metacontrarian Metaethics - Less Wrong
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Actually, considering the possibility that you've misjudged the probability doesn't help with Pascal's Mugging scenarios, because
And while P(judgment was correct) may be small, it won't be astronomically small under ordinary circumstances, which is what it would take to resolve the mugging.
(My preferred resolution is to restrict the class of admissable utility function-predictor pairs to those where probability shrinks faster that utility grows for any parameterizable statement, which is slightly less restrictive than requiring bounded utility functions.)
It's still way too restrictive though, no? And are there ways you can Dutch book it with deals where probability grows faster (instead of the intuitively-very-common scenario where they always grow at the same rate)?