endoself comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Sniffnoy 22 May 2011 07:56PM

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Comment author: endoself 23 May 2011 05:14:25AM *  7 points [-]

Off topic but amusing:

I personally consider it more probable that a Republican president will be elected in 1996 than that it will snow in Chicago sometime in the month of May, 1994.

Leonard Savage, Foundations of Statistics, page 27

See this and this.

Comment author: Rain 23 May 2011 04:54:17PM *  2 points [-]

Without context, I can't tell whether he was trying to say the chances were high, low, extraordinarily different, or slightly different.

Chance of snow 40% and chance of Republican win 45% satisfies the quote.

Comment author: endoself 23 May 2011 05:57:11PM 4 points [-]

I would have guessed more like 20% and 45%, but the point was that he was unlucky, not miscalibrated.

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