Rain comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Sniffnoy 22 May 2011 07:56PM

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Comment author: Rain 23 May 2011 04:54:17PM * 2 points [-]

Without context, I can't tell whether he was trying to say the chances were high, low, extraordinarily different, or slightly different.

Chance of snow 40% and chance of Republican win 45% satisfies the quote.

Comment author: endoself 23 May 2011 05:57:11PM 4 points [-]

I would have guessed more like 20% and 45%, but the point was that he was unlucky, not miscalibrated.