endoself comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Sniffnoy 22 May 2011 07:56PM

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Comment author: fool 01 September 2011 12:29:55AM *  2 points [-]

I'm aware of this. In this case my "operational subjective probability", as described on that same page, is necessarily not consistent with my preferences.

To put this another way, suppose that I do put the same price on Red, Green, and Blue when faced with that particular choice (i.e. knowing that I will have to buy or sell at the price I name). Why does it follow that I should not choose Red over Green in other circumstances? Or more to the point, how can I be Dutch booked if I then choose Red over Green in other circumstances?

Comment author: endoself 06 September 2011 09:12:34PM 1 point [-]

You're completely right. Dutch book arguments prove almost nothing interesting. Your preference is rational.