Vaniver comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong
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Comments (88)
Okay. Let N = 2 for simplicity and let $ denote utilons like you would use for decisions involving just risk and no uncertainty.
P(Red) = 1/3, so you are indifferent between $-1 unconditionally and ($-3 if Red, $0 otherwise). You are also indifferent between $-3 iff Red and $-3N (= $-6) iff Green (or equivalently Blue). By transitivity, you are therefore indifferent between $-1 unconditionally and $-6 iff Green. Also, you are obviously indifferent between $4 unconditionally and $6 iff (die ≥ 3).
I would think that you would allow a `pure risk' bet to be added to an uncorrelated uncertainty bet - correct me if that is wrong. In that case, you would be indifferent between $3 unconditionally and $6 iff (die ≥ 3) - $6 iff Green, but you would not be indifferent between $3 unconditionally and $6 iff (Green ∨ Blue) - $6 iff Green, which is the same as $6 iff Blue, which you value at $1.
This seems like a strange set of preferences to have, especially since both (die ≥ 3) and (Green ∨ Blue) are both pure risk, but it could be correct.
Isn't this -1 and -4, not -1 and -1? I think you want -3/N = -1.5.
I'm not quite sure what you're first sentence is referring to, but fool prefers risk to uncertainty. From his post: