http://thielfoundation.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15&Itemid=19
Thoughts?
A lot of Thiel's beliefs are in line with those of a significant portion of the LessWrong community, so I trust his judgment more than I trust that of most.
Overall, very neat and I'm glad it's being done, and some of the projects look promising. All of the people selected seem exceptionally bright.
However, it seems that some of the projects are so unrealistic as to be counter-productive. As the most glaring example, one person wants to "develop space industry technologies to solve the problem of extraterrestrial resource extraction."
Really? With $100K? I am fairly confident that the probability of that is extremely low. I think it would be better, in this case, if the individual went through college and did some directed research, since there is a good chance he'd create something valuable. Directly attempting this goal right now seems like a waste of talent.
I wonder why the candidates with unrealistic projects were chosen. Any ideas?
My guess would be that the simplest answer is the most likely: a filter tight enough to weed out every completely unrealistic project, will necessarily also weed out at least some that are just within reach and have very high potential payoff. Most of our civilization's funding sources are attached to pretty tight filters; I think we could do with a few more on looser filters.