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Larifari comments on The cost of universal cryonics - Less Wrong
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Going from 100 to 150,000 is not 17 doublings, but log(150000/100)/log(2), about 10.5
Why is that the figure used? 150,000 is the number of people who die every day - how is that relevant to the calculations in this article?
Hmmm, you are entirely correct. I ran the numbers as log (150,000) / log (2), and got 17. This was on the assumption that Alcor probably doesn't handle more than a single patient in a day.
More conservatively, I should have probably assumed Alcor handles ~10/year (based on 2010 figures). At that point we get 0.025 per day, which is about 5 additional doublings. So it looks like a fairer number would have been 22 doublings, assuming that this rule holds true. Thus, my padding to triple was probably slightly pessimistic, given the assumptions I made.
Which is fortunate because 17 increases by 10% would give us a total increase of just over 5x, but 10.5 increases by 10% give us a 2.7x increase, or (as in the article) a tripling if we're generous.
Either the two mistakes cancel each other out, or there's a typo, or some clever math trick I'm not aware of.