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Will_Sawin comments on Bias in capital project decision making - Less Wrong
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If this were true then we would expect MARR to vary with the things that affect the magnitude of overconfidence bias. If MARR were set mainly by external factors they should be unrelated.
Would it be possible to do a study? Has a study already been done?
I have not been able to find any, but it may be that my searching skills are not up to snuff.