taryneast comments on Bias in capital project decision making - Less Wrong
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I'm not sure that's what is meant by a black swan, but in any case, this would be a factor only if managers more accurately predict the impact of these events. (If it's a case of known-but-unusual things happening in part of the problemspace, that's an issue of defining the problem appropriately for the engineers, and can be corrected before the solution is implemented without a higher time-discount or margin of safety.)
Yes, perhaps that should instead read:
5) engineers often totally forget about the unknown unknowns or even black swans.