Because S_I is defined in the paper as the set of all total recursive functions compatible with the observations I. You cannot choose it to be anything else.
As I said, I am claiming to have a counterexample. I can choose any example out of all possible examples. You must show that the example I've chosen is not a possible case, to say that I'm not free to choose it.
S is not recursive, nor is it even recursively enumerable. That is, there is no Turing machine which, started on a blank tape, will output exactly all the members of S and no others. The same is true of S_I.
S is a subset of R, and R is the set of partial mu-recursive functions, meaning it consists of computable functions, meaning it is countable. R is enumerated by Goedel numbers; therefore it is enumerable. The elements of S_I are exactly those X for which p(X) > 0; and as I showed, they must be countable for this to occur. These are three separate proofs that S_I is countable in cardinality.
Constructing a Turing machine that generates S_I would be difficult. We don't have the information needed to do that. But saying that you don't know how to write that Turing machine, is not a proof that it does not exist.
S_I is of course countable, but there is no algorithm to calculate "the sum, over all possible worlds f in S_I, of p(f)U(f(k))", because there is no way of enumerating S_I, i.e. no computable bijection between S_I and N.
I've just demonstrated an example in which I provided a bijection between S_I and N, and computed the sum.
Constructing a Turing machine that generates S_I would be difficult. We don't have the information needed to do that. But saying that you don't know how to write that Turing machine, is not a proof that it does not exist.
I am not saying that I don't know how, I am saying that it cannot be done. Of course, saying that it cannot be done is also not a proof that it does not exist, merely a claim that there is such a proof. So, here is such a proof.
Suppose S_I were recursively enumerable. This means that there is a function f from N to N such that (1) f is ...
Peter de Blanc submitted a paper to arXiv.org in 2007 called "Convergence of Expected Utilities with Algorithmic Probability Distributions." It claims to show that a computable utility function can have an expected value only if the utility function is bounded.
This is important because it implies that, if a utility function is unbounded, it is useless. The purpose of a utility function is to compare possible actions k by choosing the k for which U(k) is maximal. You can't do this if U(k) is undefined for any k, let alone for every k.
I don't know whether any agent we contemplate can have a truly unbounded utility function, since the universe is finite. (The multiverse, supposing you believe in that, might not be finite; but as the utility function is meant to choose a single universe from the multiverse, I doubt that's relevant.) But it is worth exploring, as computable functions are worth exploring despite not having infinitely long tapes for our Turing machines. I previously objected that the decision process is not computable; but this is not important - we want to know whether the expected value exists, before asking how to compute (or approximate) it.
The math in the paper was too difficult for me to follow all the way through; so instead, I tried to construct a counterexample. This counterexample does not work; the flaw is explained in one of comments below. Can you find the flaw yourself? This type of error is both subtle and common. (The problem is not that the theorem actually proves that for any unbounded utility function, there is some set of possible worlds for which the expected value does not converge.)
The abstract says:
This is the formalism the paper uses as I understand it:
The world is described by a function h:N →N, where N represents the integers, and h is a function from a countable set of possible actions, into a countable set of possible observations.
H is the set of possible functions h. p:H →[0 .. 1] is a probability distribution for H. SI is a subset of H representing all possible worlds (possible values for h) that are consistent with prior observations, meaning that for f in SI, p(f) > 0, and for f not in SI, p(f) = 0.
The agent considers a countable number of possible actions. The expected utility of action k is the sum, over all possible worlds f in SI, of p(f)U(f(k)). Theorem 1 says that this sum does not converge, given some conditions which are supposed to have the meaning, "U is unbounded".
First, note that SI must be countable. This is because the sum over f in SI of p(f) = 1, and as Planetmath.org says, a sum can be finite only if the number of items summed is countable. (Also, they are all computable functions, and the number of computable functions is countable; and they are already indexed with Gödel numbers in the paper.) I will renumber the set SI. Instead of indexing them with Gödel numbers, as the paper does, I will index them so that fi (the ith member of SI) is a function of i in a different way.
I choose a probability function p:SI→[0 .. 1]. The sum of p(fi) must be 1. I choose the function p(fi) = 3/4i. This sums to 1, since the infinite series 1/4i (starting from i=1) sums to 1/3. (To see this, let the sum from i=0 to infinity be S; see that S/4 = S - 1, 4S-S = 4. s(4-1)=4, S = 4/3.)
Since the theorem is supposed to hold for all cases, I choose the case where the set of possible worlds consistent with observation is SI = { fi | fi(k) = (2(1-1/2k))i }. Note that for every i, for every k2 > k1, fi(k2) ≥ fi(k1), and the limit as k approaches infinity of fi(k) is 2i. So fi(k) is bounded above by 2i.
I choose the unbounded utility function U(f(k)) = f(k). Since fi(k) is bounded above by 2i, p(fi)U(fi(k)) is bounded above by (3/4i)2i. The sum from i=1 to infinity of (3/4i)2i is 3×(sum from i=1 to infinity of 2i/4i) = 3×(sum from i=1 to infinity of 1/2i) = 3.
So, for this case, the utility function is U(n) = n, which is unbounded; all other criteria are met; and the expected value is always bounded above by 3.
Can you find any reason why this is not a counterexample?
The only step I'm suspicious of is the step where I choose the set of possible worlds. Does the theorem implicitly assume that the utility function may be evaluated in any countable set of possible worlds (meaning it is actually proving that, for any unbounded utility function, there is some set of possible worlds for which the expected value does not converge)?