Document comments on St. Petersburg Mugging Implies You Have Bounded Utility - Less Wrong
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Comments (163)
Why should I not attach a probability of zero to the claim that you are able to grant unbounded utility?
Let GOD(N) be the claim that you are a god with the power to grant utility at least up to 2**N. Let P(GOD(N)) be the probability I assign to this. This is a nonincreasing function of N, since GOD(N+1) implies GOD(N).
If I assign a probability to GOD(N) of 4**(-N), then the mugging fails. Of course, this implies that I have assigned GOD(infinity), the conjunction of GOD(N) over all N, a probability of zero, popularly supposed to be a sin. But while I can appreciate the reason for not assigning zero to ordinary, finite claims about the world, such as the existence of an invisible dragon in your garage, I do not see a reason to avoid this zero.
If extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, what do infinite claims require?
The probability is roughly the probability of consistent combined failure of all the mental systems you can use to verify that (knowable?) actual infinities are impossible; similar to your probability that 2 + 2 = 3.