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GuySrinivasan comments on Safety Culture and the Marginal Effect of a Dollar - Less Wrong
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How confident should we be that general AI involves solely hard work on existing problems like performing inductive inference? I agree that if there are no more Key Insights, and instead just a bunch of insights that some researcher will eventually have, then most of the gains from the proposal can't be realized. Next steps: somehow estimate the probability that there are 0, 1, or several Key Insights remaining before general AI is "just" a matter of tons of hard research/experimentation, and estimate the gains from the 100-paper-strategy for the scenarios in which there are 0 or several Key Insights remaining.
I didn't really claim that. There's also the whole issue of what utility function to use - and some other things as well - tree pruning strategies, for instance. Just that inductive inference is the key technology for the technical side of the problem - the part not to do with values.
Much has been written about the link between induction and intelligence: Hutter. Mahoney. Me.