I believe that you believe it, but I'm not sure it's so. There are many reasons for any event. Specifically, you use austere debating in real arguments, which suggests that you place more weight on the method than just as a tool for exposing confusion.

(You seem to have reacted emotionally to a question of simple fact, and thus conflated the fact with your position on the fact, which status intuitions love to make people do. I think it's a bad practice.)