To defuse risks from AI you would have to argue that what we currently know AI to be capable of can not be extrapolated to encompass the full spectrum of the human potential, or that those skills can not be combined to create a coherent framework of agency.
I think you misunderstand, the question isn't what could defuse worries about UFAI by demonstrating the risks to be lower than previously believed (e. g. proving strong AI to be unfeasible), it's about what could reduce the actual existent risk.
I think you misunderstand, the question...
No, I think that short of a demonstration that strong AI is unfeasible, there is no way to actually defuse the risk enough that it would matter much. Even a very sophisticated autistic (limited set of abilities) AI, that never undergoes recursive self-improvement, but which does nonetheless possess some superhuman capabilities (which any AI has: superior memory, direct data access etc.), could pose an existential risk.
Take for example what is happening in Syria right now. The only reason that they do not squelc...
It seems to be a widely held belief around here that unfriendly artificial general intelligence is dangerous, and that (provably) friendly artificial general intelligence is the soundest counter to it.
But I'd like to see some analysis of alternatives. Here are some possible technical developments. Would any of these defuse the threat? How much would they help?
Are there other advances in computer science that might show up within the next twenty years, that would make friendly-AI much less interesting?
Would anything on this list be dangerous? Obviously, efficient algorithms for NP-complete problems would be very disruptive. Nearly all of modern cryptography would become irrelevant, for instance.