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canadaduane comments on Money: The Unit of Caring - Less Wrong
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You might be underestimating the value of social involvement in your equation. If new people become involved in the organization as a result of a "fundraiser" then this may lead to a higher expected value than direct donation, all things being equal.
From direct experience: Most charities encourage volunteer time for one and only one reason: The more someone has volunteered their time, the higher the expected dollar amount they will donate. The main purpose of volunteering is to establish emotional engagement.