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prase comments on How not to move the goalposts - Less Wrong
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The problem seems even worse than that. Suppose I can somehow magically determine the actual C++ ability of any weasel, and hire the first ten I come across that is above some threshold, then someone who doesn't have my magical ability would still (rationally) expect that the average skill among red weasels that I hire is lower than the average skill among blue weasels that I hire. (And I would expect this myself before I started the hiring process.) Similarly if decide to gather some fixed number of candidates and hire the top 10%.
One way Perplexed could be right is if I have the magical ability (or a near perfect test), and I decide to hire only weasels whose C++ ability is exactly X (no higher and no lower), but that seems rather unrealistic. What other situations could produce the result that Perplexed claimed?
True, under the assumption that the weasels are selected only by the threshold test. Actually, since time immemorial red weasels program in Fortran and C++ is thought to be a blue weasel domain. Therefore few red weasels actually plan to be hired as a C++ programmer, only those who are extraordinarily apt apply for such a job. As a coincidence, among the weasels who apply the average C++ ability is significantly higher withing the red subset.